Where an oil shock turns into societal stress — and in what order. A ranked map, not a global verdict. Each country scores three stacked multipliers — oil-import exposure, cereal-import dependence (the diesel→food channel), and FX reserves (coping) — combined conjunctively, so collapse needs all three adverse together, not just one. A susceptibility map, not a forecast.
RESERVES · World Bank, live 2024CEREAL/OIL · FAOSTAT / IEA seedPANEL · — countries
Weights & thresholds
Axis weights · geometric-mean exponents
Oil0.30
Food0.35
Reserves0.35
Renormalised to sum to 1. The sweep shows tiers barely move with the weights — so don't over-argue them.
⚑ Reserves floor · the lever the ranking hinges on
6.0
Months of FX cover below which coping risk maxes out. The sensitivity sweep found this single threshold reshuffles more tiers than any weight — what counts as "adequate" reserves is the real argument. Drag it and watch the board move.