OilWatch Intelligence · Oil-shock vulnerability

Vulnerability Tiering

Where an oil shock turns into societal stress — and in what order. A ranked map, not a global verdict. Each country scores three stacked multipliers — oil-import exposure, cereal-import dependence (the diesel→food channel), and FX reserves (coping) — combined conjunctively, so collapse needs all three adverse together, not just one. A susceptibility map, not a forecast.

RESERVES · World Bank, live 2024 CEREAL/OIL · FAOSTAT / IEA seed PANEL · countries

Weights & thresholds

Axis weights · geometric-mean exponents
Oil0.30
Food0.35
Reserves0.35

Renormalised to sum to 1. The sweep shows tiers barely move with the weights — so don't over-argue them.

⚑ Reserves floor · the lever the ranking hinges on
6.0

Months of FX cover below which coping risk maxes out. The sensitivity sweep found this single threshold reshuffles more tiers than any weight — what counts as "adequate" reserves is the real argument. Drag it and watch the board move.

Tiers

Tier 1 · collapse-risk
Tier 2 · acute stress
Tier 3 · survivable

Ranked — where, and in what order