The oil market sees the chokepoint. The fertilizer market is where it lands.
Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea aren't just oil chokepoints. They're fertilizer chokepoints. Five nations on the wrong side of these routes — Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia — between them control disproportionate shares of global urea, ammonia and potash exports. When Hormuz tightens, the price of growing food in the rest of the world goes up before the price of driving across it does.
This page tracks the operative numbers: urea, ammonia, DAP, potash and TTF natural gas. The first four are the world's nitrogen and phosphate benchmarks. TTF is included because European ammonia capacity is gas-cost-bound — when TTF rises, European plants idle and the region becomes more Gulf-dependent. Together these readings are the operational layer beneath the editorial argument made in our From Hormuz to Hunger analysis.
Fertilizer Watch
Editorial · updated weekly
Ureaw/w broadly stable — CBOT front-month futures ~$475.50/t (week of 19 Aug 2026); holding consolidated near top of $450–475 range
Egypt FOB (granular)
~$450–475/t
CBOT UFE front-month (Sep-26) futures indicated ~$475.50/t per TradingView/Barchart search snippet (week of 19 Aug 2026) — unchanged from prior week. Africa urea indicated at ~$480/t (up 1% m/m per IMARC public citation, July data). Physical spot paywalled at Profercy/QCIntel/ICIS. Urea peaked above $850/t in April 2026 post-Hormuz closure, softened in May after China lifted export ban (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu; World Bank Pink Sheet peak $725.6/t in March, above $850 in April). Mid-July trough ~$385–400/t; recovery has consolidated near top of $450–475 range. Hormuz war premium continues to underpin above pre-crisis baseline. Subscription-grade assessments required for confirmed physical level.
AmmoniaAugust contract confirmed at Hormuz-cycle high; September contract remains publicly unconfirmed as of 19 Aug 2026
Tampa CFR contract
~$870/t
August Yara–Mosaic Tampa CFR contract confirmed at ~$870/t (up $70/mt on July's $800/t), per QCIntel headline 'Tampa ammonia contract spikes by $70/mt for August' (article paywalled, headline visible in search results, week of 5 Aug 2026). QCIntel headline 'Atlantic ammonia prices climb as Tampa reaches multi-year high' (week of 12 Aug 2026) confirms prices remain elevated. September contract remains publicly unconfirmed as of week of 19 Aug 2026 — no settlement headline found in public sources. North African supply tightening and continuing Hormuz disruption cited as drivers. Monthly benchmark — subscription-only for full confirmed assessment text.
DAPbroadly stable — consolidating at ~$795/st at NOLA (week ending 17 Aug); Chinese phosphate export curbs sustaining support through August
NOLA FOB barge
~$785–800/st
igrownews Fertilizer Prices Weekly Update (week ending 17 Aug 2026): DAP +0.32% on the week to $795.00/T, up 3.58% on the month. China phosphate export restrictions through August covering ~50–80% of export volumes continue to support the floor. Argus headline 'Nola DAP re-export demand drives prices higher' (week of 12 Aug 2026, article paywalled) drove prior-week firming leg; re-export demand pulse has not reversed but is consolidating. China restrictions estimated to have removed 7–9 million metric tonnes from global trade; OCP and Ma'aden filling gap at $20–40/t landed-cost premium. Physical barge spot (Green Markets / DTN) remains paywalled. Indicative — not a confirmed physical assessment.
Potash (MOP)stable — no fresh public citations for week of 19 Aug
Brazil CFR granular
$405–415/t
No fresh public citations for week of 19 Aug — holding prior indications (~$405–415/t CFR). World Bank Pink Sheet March 2026 data: $380.6/t; Brazil CFR typically carries a premium over Pink Sheet standard. Procurement Resource notes MOP Brazil prices rose ~4% in Q1 2026 versus Q4 2025; no material change signalled for August. Not exchange-traded; subscription-only for confirmed level.
TTF natgasrising — holding above €62/MWh at fresh three-week high; US-Iran negotiations stall, Southern European heatwave boosts gas-fired power demand
Front-month — European ammonia cost driver
€58–65/MWh
TTF front-month trading at ~€62.50/MWh as of August 18–19, 2026 per TradingView/EnergyRiskIQ/Yahoo Finance consensus (EnergyRiskIQ: '€62.50/MWh'; Aug 17: €62.22/MWh, up 1.29% on day; Aug 19: €62.58/MWh, up 1.51% on day). Fresh three-week high, advancing from ~€57–59 settlement of August 11–12. Drivers this week: US-Iran diplomatic negotiations stalled (Israeli strikes against Tehran-backed Hezbollah complicated diplomatic track); Southern and Central European heatwave driving gas-fired cooling demand surge; Gulf LNG shipping disruptions delaying Qatar cargoes; EU storage build tracking below seasonal target. EU gas up ~5.9% on the month, ~99% year-on-year. Range updated to €58–65/MWh reflecting observed intraweek floor (~€58) and existing ceiling (€65 from prior spike — intraweek high of €64.4/MWh recorded week of 12 Aug remains the recent peak). Ongoing Hormuz disruption continues to underpin elevated levels versus pre-crisis baseline.
Current reading: TTF has advanced further this week, trading at approximately €62–63/MWh through August 17–19 — a fresh three-week high — and well above the €57–59 settlement of August 11–12. The drivers have evolved from last week's Norwegian Ormen Lange supply cuts and Damietta drone strike to a broader reinforcement: US-Iran negotiations stalled again as fresh Israeli strikes against Tehran-backed Hezbollah complicated the diplomatic track, while a heatwave sweeping Southern and Central Europe surged gas-fired power generation to meet cooling demand, diverting supply from storage. EU gas stocks continue to build at a pace below target, deepening the winter-preparedness deficit. For European ammonia producers — BASF, Yara, OCI — a week at €62–63/MWh is not relief from last week's €64.4 intraweek spike: it is confirmation that TTF has structurally repriced above €60. The €55/MWh production-economics threshold that defined EU plant-idling decisions is now two consecutive weeks behind this market. DAP has consolidated at approximately $795/st at NOLA (broadly stable on the week, up 3.6% on the month), as China's extended phosphate export restrictions through August continue to hold supply tight globally — the re-export demand pulse from last week has not reversed. Ammonia at Tampa remains confirmed at approximately $870/t for August, with September not yet settled. With TTF holding above €62/MWh, European gas storage injecting below target, Gulf LNG disruptions compounding with heatwave-driven power demand, and both ammonia and phosphate benchmarks entrenched at elevated levels, the economics of EU nitrogen production remain acutely — and increasingly durably — squeezed as the continent approaches its critical winter storage window.
Watch next: Whether TTF sustains above €62/MWh or pulls back as Southern European heatwave demand eases — and whether EU storage injection rate recovers toward seasonal targets before the summer build window closes. Whether September's Tampa ammonia contract confirms at, above, or below August's cycle-high $870/t — and whether European ammonia plant curtailment decisions (BASF, Yara, OCI) are adjusted. Whether DAP holds near $795/st at NOLA or consolidates lower as the re-export demand pulse stabilises. Whether urea holds the top of the $450–475 range given the Africa $480 signal. India / China urea tender activity and any further Hormuz escalation remain physical swing factors. Sourcing note: real-time Argus / ICIS / Green Markets assessments are subscription-only and the free World Bank Pink Sheet lags ~a month — these are publicly-cited indications.
Weekly editorial refresh from World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly, free), Argus public citations, Reuters / Bloomberg quotes, IFA quarterly summaries, and USDA fertilizer outlook. Gold-standard real-time prices (CRU, Argus, ICIS, Profercy) are paywalled — ranges are aggregated from publicly-cited figures and CBOT futures snippets, not republished feeds. Editorial reading is our market interpretation. Updated 19 Aug 2026.
Why it matters for Europe
Europe's fertilizer story runs through one chart: TTF natural gas. European ammonia plants — BASF Antwerp, Yara Sluiskil, OCI Geleen, BASF Ludwigshafen — are all gas-cost-bound. When TTF rises, the marginal cost of producing ammonia in Europe exceeds the cost of importing it. Plants idle. Production falls. Europe inhales more Gulf urea and ammonia at exactly the moment those Gulf flows are constrained by Hormuz.
The 2022 gas crisis demonstrated this dynamic at speed: European nitrogen output fell roughly 70% at peak, and the continent absorbed the slack from Russian and Gulf imports. The Iran war reactivates the same loop with a much tighter physical supply ceiling on the other end. EU farmers face the same Q3 2026 buying-window timing problem as their UK counterparts, with the additional risk that European producer prices remain hostage to TTF for the duration of the war.
The chain
How a Hormuz chokepoint becomes a food-security event, in seven operational steps.
Hormuz / Red Sea disruption throttles Gulf urea and ammonia exports — Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, five producer nations on the wrong side of the chokepoint.
Global benchmark prices spike. World Bank Pink Sheet, April 2026: nitrogen up ~70% across the board; US urea +52% since the strikes.
European ammonia plants idle as TTF natural gas rises — production cost exceeds the cost of importing finished product.
Import-dependent regions (South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, the Sahel) face fertilizer scarcity and price shocks they cannot absorb at consumer level.
Non-linear yield collapse on the next crop cycle: a 10% nitrogen reduction produces ~25% yield loss in well-fertilized agriculture — and 30–50% on the world's most marginal soils.
Food prices rise in import-dependent countries. Sovereign-debt and export-ban doom loops accelerate.
If the blockade extends past the August threshold identified in our Hormuz to Hunger model, the damage transitions from one missed crop cycle into compounding multi-cycle collapse.
Read the full analysis
From Hormuz to Hunger — Policy Brief + Technical Report (v4)
The systems analysis behind this page — nine causal chains, scenario-weighted estimates, historical calibration against nine famines, and policy recommendations. Free, no signup required.