EuroOilWatch — EU Fuel Reserve & Price Intelligence

As of March 2026, EU-wide average oil stock levels sit at 95.6 days for petrol, 88.1 days for diesel, and 87.0 days for jet fuel. While the petrol average technically clears the 90-day mandatory minimum, both diesel and jet fuel fall short of that threshold at the aggregate level. The bloc's overall status is rated 'watch', reflecting a situation that is under strain but not yet at the point of systemic failure. Recent strategic reserve releases — triggered by Middle East supply disruptions — have contributed to the drawdown visible in these figures, and Brent crude's 9.3% rise since late February (from $72.48 to $79.23 per barrel) adds a cost dimension that may deter timely replenishment.

The picture is considerably more concerning at the country level. Of the 27 member states in the dataset, 13 are rated critical in at least one fuel category. The most severely exposed countries are Luxembourg, Poland, Austria, Romania, and Portugal, each of which records critical status across all three fuel types simultaneously. Romania's diesel reserve stands at just 30.2 days — less than one-third of the mandatory minimum — making it the single most acute national shortfall in the dataset. Poland's jet fuel reserve of 22.5 days and Portugal's 21.2 days are similarly alarming. These are not marginal shortfalls; they represent structural vulnerabilities that would offer little buffer in a further supply shock.

Jet fuel is the most broadly stressed category across the EU. Even countries with relatively healthy petrol and diesel stocks — including Denmark (75.7 days), Finland (31.9 days), Latvia (51.6 days), and Germany (59.9 days) — are rated critical for jet fuel. This pattern suggests aviation supply chains are facing distinct pressures, potentially linked to the Middle East disruptions affecting refining and logistics routes. By contrast, diesel reserves show a more bifurcated picture: the Netherlands holds 207.5 days and Finland 197.7 days, while Romania sits at 30.2 days and Slovakia at 33.5 days — a spread of more than 170 days between the best and worst positioned member states.

On pricing, EU average petrol and diesel stand at €1.771/L and €1.781/L respectively as of mid-June 2026. Denmark is the most expensive market for petrol at €2.392/L, while Malta remains the cheapest at €1.340/L. The relatively modest price spread compared to the severity of stock shortfalls in some countries may reflect ongoing government interventions or subsidies, though the data does not confirm this. With Brent still elevated and strategic reserves already partially drawn down in several member states, the margin for error in the event of a further supply interruption is limited.