EuroOilWatch โ€” EU Fuel Reserve & Price Intelligence

EU FUEL SECURITY STATUSWARNING

EU fuel stocks remain under strain with 18 of 27 countries showing critical levels in at least one fuel category, though overall reserves stay above mandatory minimums.

Data period: 2026-03 ยท Updated 15 May 2026, 07:48

EU Average Fuel Reserves (Days of Supply)

113days

Petrol

Min: 90d

102days

Diesel

Min: 90d

95days

Jet Fuel

Min: 90d

EU benchmark: 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption, whichever is higher (Directive 2009/119/EC)

Days of supply shown here are calculated from total EU consumption, not net imports. They indicate domestic buffer capacity and are not directly comparable to formal IEA compliance figures. See Methodology for details.

EU Average Reserves โ€” 18-Month Trend

Market Prices

Brent Crude

$107.33/barrel

โ–ฒ +1.57 (+1.5%)

Brent (EUR)

โ‚ฌ98.74/barrel

EU Avg Petrol

โ‚ฌ1.817/litre

EU Avg Diesel

โ‚ฌ1.897/litre

Physical NWE Crude โ€” Editorial Estimate

โ‚ฌ140/bblยท $152

+42% above Brent futures benchmark

CIF NWE prompt delivery โ€” physical crude

As of 15 May 2026 ยท Editorial estimate ยท trade press (Reuters, Bloomberg, Argus)

Premium above Brent futures reflects Hormuz disruption + Red Sea constraints. Update by editing this JSON file and committing.

European Gas โ€” TTF vs Henry Hub + AGSI Storage

Updated daily

TTF (front-month)

โ‚ฌ47.65/MWh

โ–ฒ 1.57%

Henry Hub

$2.935/MMBtu

โ–ฒ 1.42%

Europe pays vs US

5.54ร—

+$13.33/MMBtu

Open the full Gas Tracker โ€” TTF vs Henry Hub history, EU storage by country, 90% refill target

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European Jet Fuel โ€” Country Days-of-Cover + ARA Hub

New
Updated daily

EU average

95.1days

strategic + commercial

Most-stressed

25.3days

Poland ยท 13 of 27 critical

ARA hub commercial

600kt

-7.6% WoW ยท 6-yr low

Open the full Jet Fuel Tracker โ€” 27-country breakdown, ARA hub trend, 18-month history, UK context

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Active Supply Disruption

Active since 1 May 2026

Russia has halted Kazakh crude supply via Druzhba pipeline to Germany

PCK Schwedt refinery (supplies most of Berlin's fuel) has lost ~17% of its crude since 1 May. Germany says petroleum-product security is not in jeopardy because alternative routes exist, but its regulator has warned of regional pricing effects.

EU angle: An additional layer of regional supply friction with Brent above $100 and Hormuz shipping still heavily disrupted โ€” tightening North West European refining and diesel balances at the worst possible moment.

Source: Reuters.

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Refinery Health Watch

โ— No thermal anomalies detected near tracked 24 major EU and Gulf refineries / terminals in the past 24 hours.

NASA FIRMS VIIRS satellite detections within ~15 km of 24 major EU and Gulf refineries / terminals. Past 24 h. High Fire Radiative Power near a facility may indicate flaring, fire, or process incident โ€” not all detections indicate incidents.

OPEC+ Production โ€” global supply context

Full tracker on AmericasOilWatch โ†—

OPEC core

34.44mbpd

12 members ยท EIA, latest available

Russia

10.68mbpd

non-OPEC anchor

๐Ÿค–

AI Analysis

Claude ยท 15 May, 07:49
โ—18 of 27 EU countries show critical fuel levels in at least one category, with Romania facing critical shortages across all three fuel types
โ—Jet fuel stocks present the greatest regional vulnerability, with 17 countries at warning or critical levels and EU average at 95.1 days
โ—Diesel supplies remain tight in major economies - Germany at 64.3 days, Italy at 74 days, both below the 90-day threshold
โ—Oil prices have surged 48.1% since late February to $107.33/barrel, driving fuel costs to โ‚ฌ1.817/L for petrol and โ‚ฌ1.897/L for diesel
โ—Regional price disparities are significant, with Netherlands petrol at โ‚ฌ2.341/L compared to Malta's โ‚ฌ1.34/L

European fuel security faces significant pressure as regional tensions continue to drive oil prices higher and strain emergency stockpiles. Brent crude has surged 48.1% since late February to $107.33/barrel, forcing several countries to tap strategic reserves. Despite this stress, EU-wide averages remain above the mandatory 90-day minimum at 112.8 days for petrol, 101.5 days for diesel, and 95.1 days for jet fuel.

The distribution of reserves reveals concerning disparities across member states. Romania faces the most severe situation with all three fuel types at critical levels, including dangerously low diesel stocks at just 30.2 days. Poland and Luxembourg also show critical status across all categories, while major economies like Germany and Italy struggle with diesel and jet fuel shortages despite adequate petrol reserves. Aviation fuel presents the broadest challenge, with 17 of 27 countries at critical or warning levels.

Fuel prices reflect the underlying supply pressures, with EU averages reaching โ‚ฌ1.817/L for petrol and โ‚ฌ1.897/L for diesel. The Netherlands and Denmark face the highest petrol costs above โ‚ฌ2.30/L, while Malta and Poland offer some relief with prices under โ‚ฌ1.50/L. The current situation requires careful monitoring as geopolitical tensions persist and winter demand approaches.

This analysis is generated by AI and may contain errors. It is not financial or safety advice. Always verify critical decisions with official sources including Eurostat, DG Energy, and your national energy agency.

๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ

Global Supply Routes โ€” Chokepoint Status

Hormuz, Suez, Bab-el-Mandeb, ARA hub โ€” current risk levels

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๐Ÿ“ฐ

News Feed โ€” What's Driving These Numbers?

Latest oil & fuel supply news from leading energy sources

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๐Ÿญ

Refinery Outages & Turnarounds New

1 headline tracked ยท 1 high-severity

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๐Ÿ“˜

Special Report โ€” The Fall of the UK? New

18 structural decline vectors modelled as a single system ยท 40โ€“70% probability of Accelerated Decline by 2035 ยท Free download

โ†’
๐Ÿ“•

Special Report โ€” From Hormuz to Hunger

Independent systems risk analysis ยท The fertilizer cascade nobody is modelling ยท Free download

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This analysis is delivered to your inbox every Thursday. Subscribe to the weekly briefing โ†’

EU27 Country Overview

27 countries with data
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ดRomania
Reserves49d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.76๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.84
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฑPoland
Reserves56d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.49๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.62
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บLuxembourg
Reserves60d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.79๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.84
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡นPortugal
Reserves66d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.98๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.97
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡นAustria
Reserves69d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.80๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.91
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธSpain
Reserves69d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.54๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.72
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡นItaly
Reserves72d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.93๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ2.02
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡นLithuania
Reserves75d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.80๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.96
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ชGermany
Reserves77d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ2.02๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.97
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ทGreece
Reserves77d
Mar 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ2.09๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.85
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฐSlovakia
Reserves80d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.77๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.77
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ทCroatia
Reserves83d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.70๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.85
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทFrance
Reserves83d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ2.08๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ2.16
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟCzechia
Reserves86d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.75๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.75
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ชBelgium
Reserves92d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.94๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ2.17
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บHungary
Reserves101d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.68๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.75
๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ปLatvia
Reserves106d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.85๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.96
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎFinland
Reserves111d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ2.14๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ2.37
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑNetherlands
Reserves116d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ2.34๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ2.31
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฌBulgaria
Reserves107d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.49๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.75
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐDenmark
Reserves126d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ2.30๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ2.19
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พCyprus
Reserves139d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.56๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.87
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ชSweden
Reserves116d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.68๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.89
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡นMalta
Reserves143d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.34๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.21
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ชIreland
Reserves155d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.82๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.96
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฎSlovenia
Reserves213d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.66๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.73
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ชEstonia
Reserves264d
Feb 2026
โ›ฝ โ‚ฌ1.75๐Ÿ›ข โ‚ฌ1.85
Jan 2026Monthly data (latest)โณ 2024Annual data (older โ€” monthly not yet reported)

23 of 27 reporting countries are below the 90-day benchmark for at least one fuel type. Data is the latest available from Eurostat; reporting dates vary by country. Stock data is published monthly with an approximate 2-month lag.

Cite this data โ€” Public API

Full docs โ†’

Every number on this dashboard is available as JSON via a free, read-only API. CORS-enabled, no authentication, no key required. Built for journalists, analysts, researchers, and LLM agents who want to cite the source rather than scrape the page.

curl https://eurooilwatch.com/api/v1/stocks    # EU-27 reserves
curl https://eurooilwatch.com/api/v1/gas       # TTF + Henry Hub + AGSI
curl https://eurooilwatch.com/api/v1           # endpoint index

Attribution: cite as "EuroOilWatch โ€” eurooilwatch.com" alongside the underlying institutional source (Eurostat, EC, EIA, etc.) which is included in every payload.

Also available: RSS feed and a network activity page tracking newsletters, new analysis, reports and dashboard updates across all three OilWatch sites.

Data Sources

Oil Stocks

Eurostat (nrg_stk_oilm) โ€” monthly, ~2-month lag

Latest period: 2026-03

Fuel Prices

EC Weekly Oil Bulletin โ€” weekly

Bulletin date: 2026-05-11

Crude Oil

Stooq (cb.f front-month)

Updated: 15/05/2026

Reserve data reflects the latest available Eurostat submissions per country, not real-time tank levels. Prices are national averages including all taxes. This dashboard refreshes daily to capture new submissions.

Weekly Fuel Security Briefing

Every Thursday: reserve status changes, price movements, and supply-risk signals across all 27 EU countries โ€” in one concise email.

Read by logistics operators, procurement teams, and energy analysts.