Global Oil Supply Routes

The world's most critical oil chokepoint is in active disruption. Traffic has fallen to a small fraction of normal levels, with only a handful of vessels transiting and major operators suspending Gulf loadings. Iran is effectively controlling passage conditions. The ~20 mb/d that normally flows through the strait — around 20% of global oil trade — is severely constrained.

Bypass routes no longer provide meaningful relief. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline capacity has been reduced by attacks on Saudi output; the UAE's ADCO pipeline cannot absorb displaced volumes at scale. IEA coordinated strategic reserve releases are under active consideration. The disruption is geopolitically linked to the Houthi/Red Sea crisis — both stem from the same regional conflict, creating a compound supply shock.

The southern entrance to the Red Sea remains actively disrupted by Houthi attacks since November 2023. Around 4.5 mb/d of oil and products normally transits this route; daily traffic through Bab-el-Mandeb and Suez Canal remains far below pre-attack levels. This disruption now forms part of a wider compound crisis alongside the Hormuz near-standstill — both geopolitically linked.

Operation Prosperity Guardian has not restored commercial transit confidence. Insurance premiums for Red Sea passage remain prohibitive. The Houthi threat and Hormuz disruption share geopolitical roots in the same regional conflict, making a coordinated resolution difficult. Compound supply shocks of this kind are unprecedented in the post-2000 era.

The Suez Canal carries around 5.5 mb/d of oil and petroleum products plus significant LNG volumes. Red Sea avoidance by commercial tankers has kept Canal transit volumes far below pre-disruption levels since late 2023. Cape of Good Hope diversion is now the operating norm for Gulf-to-Europe cargoes, and simultaneous Hormuz disruption has compounded the pressure on European supply chains.

The Sumed pipeline can carry approximately 2.5 mb/d of crude as a bypass but not refined products. EU member states have largely adapted sourcing to Atlantic Basin suppliers, but at sustained higher cost. A Houthi ceasefire is the necessary condition for Red Sea/Suez recovery; Hormuz normalisation requires a separate political resolution.

The only maritime access to the Baltic Sea. Pre-sanctions, around 3 mb/d of Russian crude and products from Baltic ports (Primorsk, Ust-Luga) transited this route. Post-2022 sanctions have reduced Russian flows but shadow fleet tankers continue to carry Russian oil, raising insurance and environmental concerns.

Denmark and Sweden are both NATO members and have shown willingness to scrutinise shadow fleet tanker transits. The EU has progressively tightened enforcement of price cap rules on Russian oil transiting these waters. Several shadow fleet vessels have been detained or refused port access in the region.

The Bosphorus and Dardanelles control Black Sea access to the Mediterranean. Around 2.4 mb/d passes through — primarily Kazakhstani crude via the CPC pipeline and residual Russian Black Sea exports. Turkey has periodically restricted passage, citing insurance requirements linked to Western price cap enforcement on Russian oil.

Turkey operates transit rights under the 1936 Montreux Convention. The EU price cap on Russian oil has created ongoing legal and commercial friction around insurance requirements for vessels. Turkey has resisted pressure to fully enforce EU-aligned restrictions, creating a persistent compliance gap.

The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) complex is Europe's largest refining and oil storage hub, handling around 4 mb/d of crude and products. It acts as the primary pricing and distribution point for Northwest European fuel markets. Rotterdam alone is the world's largest port by cargo volume. Note: shipping around Antwerp was partially halted on 10 April 2026 following an oil spill; this is an operational incident under containment rather than a structural supply route disruption.

ARA commercial storage acts as a buffer for European supply disruptions. Tanker arrivals at Rotterdam are a leading indicator of fuel availability. ARA stock levels are published weekly by Insights Global and monitored closely by energy traders. In the current environment, ARA stock drawdown is the key metric to watch for early signs of downstream tightness.