Signal Tracker
Phase 2 — Live ValidationForward-looking fuel security signal based on EU reserve levels, Brent momentum, and 52-week range. Each weekly run logs a 4-week prediction. Outcomes are scored automatically when the target date arrives.
Current Composite Signal
▼BEARISHBrent
$88.69/bbl
Updated 18 April 2026
Sub-signals
EU Reserve Z-Score
EU diesel 97.4d vs 92.7d avg · z = 0.97
Brent 4-Week Momentum
-21.2% change from $112.57/bbl 4 weeks ago
Brent 52-Week Range Position
54th percentile · range $60.47–$112.57
Weights: Momentum 45% · Reserve z-score 30% · 52w range 25%. Signal fires at ±0.20 threshold. Neutral = no directional claim.
2
Predictions
2
Pending
0
Scored
—
Hit Rate
need 10+ to interpret
Prediction Log
One entry per week. Scored automatically after 4-week target date.
| Date | Signal | Brent | Target | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | ▼BEARISH | $88.69 | 2026-05-16 | pending |
| 2026-04-18 | ▼BEARISH | $88.69 | 2026-05-16 | pending |
Methodology & Limitations
This is a Phase 2 validation exercise. The hypothesis — that EU fuel reserve levels correlate with Brent crude price direction — is unproven. The prior backtests used modelled data. This tracker uses real, timestamped forward predictions to test whether the signal has genuine predictive edge.
A prediction is scored a HIT if Brent moves ≥2% in the predicted direction over 4 weeks. Neutral signals are not scored — no directional claim is made. Statistical significance requires at least 20–30 scored predictions (approx. 5–7 months of weekly runs).
Reserve data has a ~2-month publication lag. Nothing here constitutes financial advice.