European Jet Fuel Tracker
Days-of-cover by country (Eurostat), commercial hub stocks (ARA), and the gap between them. Jet is the sharp end of European fuel security right now: airlines run on commercial inventory that turns over weekly, while strategic reserves cushion shocks on a longer timescale. Headline national figures and operational hub stocks answer different questions; stale hub readings are withheld.
European Jet Fuel — Country Days-of-Cover + ARA Hub
Eurostat period 2026-06 · updated 27 Sept 2026EU average — jet
67.7days
unweighted mean of 26 of 27 assessable national figures (1 withheld, 1 capped at 365) · 90-day reference
Most-stressed country
12.5days
Poland · 21 of 26 countries jet-critical
ARA hub commercial jet
—
current public data unavailable
Two numbers, two stories. EU jet cover on Eurostat's basis (68 days) combines strategic and commercial stocks, and looks comfortable. The commercial stocks that actually feed airlines through the ARA hub move on a faster timescale. Strategic reserves help cushion shocks, but airlines depend on commercial inventory week-to-week — which is why the ARA number is the one to watch for summer-flight risk.
26 EU countries — jet fuel days of supply, sorted lowest first
| Country | Days | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | 12.5 | critical |
| Croatia | 17.6 | critical |
| Portugal | 20.0 | critical |
| Hungary | 34.3 | critical |
| Finland | 34.6 | critical |
| Latvia | 36.4 | critical |
| Spain | 37.3 | critical |
| Romania | 39.0 | critical |
| Luxembourg | 43.0 | critical |
| Italy | 45.4 | critical |
| Greece | 45.9 | critical |
| Netherlands | 51.1 | critical |
| Czechia | 52.5 | critical |
| Austria | 57.2 | critical |
| Bulgaria | 57.3 | critical |
| Cyprus | 57.6 | critical |
| Denmark | 58.0 | critical |
| Slovakia | 59.1 | critical |
| France | 60.1 | critical |
| Germany | 62.2 | critical |
| Malta | 73.1 | critical |
| Sweden | 83.4 | warning |
| Belgium | 90.5 | watch |
| Ireland | 94.3 | watch |
| Estonia | 174.0 | safe |
| Sloveniacapped (405) | 365.0 | safe |
21 critical · 1 warning · 2 watch · 2 safe · 1 withheld. A positive consumption, however small, is a measured denominator: the cover it gives follows the same calculation as every other figure and is capped at 365 days, and the cap is marked. Row markers: from YYYY-MM = the stock is an older month carried into this period (Eurostat holds a zero or no value for the current month); capped = the computed figure exceeded 365 days and 365 is shown; modelled = no consumption published, days estimated from a size-class constant; unverified = this file predates provenance recording.
EU average jet fuel days of cover — last 16 months
Country jet stocks via Eurostat (nrg_stk_oilm) — monthly, ~2-month publication lag. ARA hub commercial stocks are weekly when publicly available; stale readings are withheld. The 90-day line is an OilWatch reference on per-product consumption cover, not the EU stockholding obligation: Directive 2009/119/EC is 90 days of average daily net imports or 61 days of average daily inland consumption, whichever is greater, in crude equivalent across all products. The 23-day floor is the IEA's commercial-stocks shortage threshold cited in recent oil market reports.
Why European jet fuel is the most exposed corner of the supply system
Inelastic demand. Aviation demand barely flexes in response to price. A €5/MWh move in TTF gas changes industrial behaviour within weeks; a €100/tonne move in jet fuel changes nothing until airlines start cancelling flights. That makes jet the canary for stress in the wider product complex.
Refining-yield mismatch. European refineries are configured for Middle Eastern medium/sour grades that yield roughly 13–15% jet. When operators run alternative crudes — US light tight oil, Brazilian, West African — jet yields fall toward 9–11%. That means even a fully-supplied crude market can leave the European jet barrel short, which is exactly what the current arbitrage pattern looks like.
Strategic vs commercial split. The 90-day stockholding obligation (Directive 2009/119/EC) keeps national-level cover high in aggregate. But airlines don't draw on strategic stocks day-to-day; they draw on commercial inventory at the ARA hub and at airport bunkers. The two numbers move on different clocks.
No backstop for the UK. The UK sits outside the EU stockholding framework and holds no dedicated strategic jet reserve. Heathrow alone accounts for a large share of national jet demand, and the entire UK system is heavily exposed to NW European refining and import flows.
What we don't yet show. Airport-level bunker days (Heathrow, CDG, Schiphol, Frankfurt) and the US-to-Europe transatlantic jet arbitrage spread are planned additions. Both require data sources we don't currently pull.