European Jet Fuel Tracker
Days-of-cover by country (Eurostat), commercial hub stocks (ARA), and the gap between them. Jet is the sharp end of European fuel security right now: airlines run on commercial inventory that turns over weekly, while strategic reserves cushion shocks on a longer timescale. Headline national figures can look comfortable when the operational hub is tightening.
European Jet Fuel — Country Days-of-Cover + ARA Hub
Eurostat period 2026-03 · updated 15 May 2026EU average — jet
95.1days
strategic + commercial combined · 90-day benchmark
Most-stressed country
25.3days
Poland · 13 of 27 countries jet-critical
ARA hub commercial jet
600kt
lowest level since April 2020, a six-year low · -7.6% WoW
Two numbers, two stories. EU jet cover on Eurostat's basis (95 days) combines strategic and commercial stocks, and looks comfortable. But the commercial stocks that actually feed airlines through the ARA hub are at lowest level since April 2020, a six-year low. Strategic reserves help cushion shocks, but airlines depend on commercial inventory week-to-week — which is why the ARA number is the one to watch for summer-flight risk.
27 EU countries — jet fuel days of supply, sorted lowest first
| Country | Days | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | 25.3 | critical |
| Portugal | 26.7 | critical |
| Finland | 40.2 | critical |
| Spain | 42.1 | critical |
| Austria | 44.5 | critical |
| Hungary | 44.5 | critical |
| Netherlands | 51.1 | critical |
| Lithuania | 54.3 | critical |
| Luxembourg | 57.5 | critical |
| Latvia | 62.3 | critical |
| Germany | 64.7 | critical |
| France | 67.5 | critical |
| Romania | 76.4 | critical |
| Italy | 76.7 | warning |
| Denmark | 77.1 | warning |
| Czechia | 82.3 | warning |
| Cyprus | 83.2 | warning |
| Croatia | 84.1 | warning |
| Bulgaria | 85.3 | warning |
| Malta | 89.6 | watch |
| Greece | 95.9 | watch |
| Slovakia | 105.6 | safe |
| Belgium | 106.6 | safe |
| Sweden | 142.9 | safe |
| Ireland | 151.8 | safe |
| Slovenia | 365.0 | safe |
| Estonia | 365.0 | safe |
13 critical · 6 warning · 2 watch · 6 safe. Countries with very small jet consumption (e.g. Slovenia, Estonia) can show inflated days-of-cover because the denominator is so small — read those with appropriate scepticism.
EU average jet fuel days of cover — last 18 months
Country jet stocks via Eurostat (nrg_stk_oilm) — monthly, ~2-month publication lag. ARA hub commercial stocks via Argus Media (syndicating Insights Global), weekly. The 90-day benchmark is the EU stockholding obligation (Directive 2009/119/EC); the 23-day floor is the IEA's commercial-stocks shortage threshold cited in recent oil market reports.
Why European jet fuel is the most exposed corner of the supply system
Inelastic demand. Aviation demand barely flexes in response to price. A €5/MWh move in TTF gas changes industrial behaviour within weeks; a €100/tonne move in jet fuel changes nothing until airlines start cancelling flights. That makes jet the canary for stress in the wider product complex.
Refining-yield mismatch. European refineries are configured for Middle Eastern medium/sour grades that yield roughly 13–15% jet. When operators run alternative crudes — US light tight oil, Brazilian, West African — jet yields fall toward 9–11%. That means even a fully-supplied crude market can leave the European jet barrel short, which is exactly what the current arbitrage pattern looks like.
Strategic vs commercial split. The 90-day stockholding obligation (Directive 2009/119/EC) keeps national-level cover high in aggregate. But airlines don't draw on strategic stocks day-to-day; they draw on commercial inventory at the ARA hub and at airport bunkers. The two numbers move on different clocks.
No backstop for the UK. The UK sits outside the EU stockholding framework and holds no dedicated strategic jet reserve. Heathrow alone accounts for a large share of national jet demand, and the entire UK system is heavily exposed to NW European refining and import flows.
What we don't yet show. Airport-level bunker days (Heathrow, CDG, Schiphol, Frankfurt) and the US-to-Europe transatlantic jet arbitrage spread are planned additions. Both require data sources we don't currently pull.