Global Disruption Status

Attacks reached a record in October while flow estimates diverge: Kpler puts October crude through Hormuz at 16.7m b/d against about 19m pre-war, and ANZ put flows near 60% of normal. PortWatch shows 3.3 visible transits a day to 25 October, a floor, not total throughput.

• Washington Institute: 30 ship attacks in October to 28 October, a record month.
• UKMTO, 29 October: tanker on fire nine miles north of Khasab; vessel not named.
• IRGC claims three tankers hit mines on 29 October; CENTCOM rejects the claim.

European relevance: For Europe the shuttle changes little: Saudi crude transiting at Saudi risk goes to Asian refiners, and European term buyers were told in September to expect no October Saudi crude.

Watch next: Whether Iran's threatened action against 'unauthorised' transits from 1 November stops ships, whether owners confirm any IRGC claim, and whether talks or strikes after the 3 November midterms change flows.

Last verified 30 October 2026View full chronology

Houthi strikes now target Saudi export plant, but none has been shown to cut supply: a 27 October attack started a fire at the Ras Tanura terminal that a source told Bloomberg was contained. Claimed hits on Yanbu, Rabigh and the East–West pipeline remain unconfirmed, and no change at Bab el-Mandeb has been reported.

• 27 October: fire at Ras Tanura terminal after Houthi attack; contained, a source told Bloomberg.
• 24–29 October: Houthis claim Yanbu, Rabigh, pipeline and Abqaiq strikes; no damage confirmed.
• 29 October: Saudi air defences intercept a missile aimed at the Eastern Province.

European relevance: European refiners were told in September to expect no October Saudi crude; whether Aramco's October Yanbu schedule restores those cargoes has not been reported, and how fast Yanbu recovers decides whether they must still be replaced.

Watch next: Whether any strike is shown to cut loadings at Ras Tanura, Yanbu or Rabigh, whether East–West pipeline throughput can be confirmed, and whether Egypt deploys to defend Saudi Arabia.

Last verified 30 October 2026View full chronology

No recovery in Black Sea product exports has been reported since diesel and gasoil loadings fell to zero in the week to 24 September, a first in S&P Global records. War-risk cover has risen sharply; no new port strike or Sheskharis halt was confirmed between 5 and 22 October.

• No October Black Sea diesel or gasoil export figure found; the last S&P reading was zero.
• Broker Sobol: war-risk premiums up from 0.1% to 0.5%, confirmed by insurers 6 October.
• Russia partially lifted its diesel export ban on 10 October, permitting 500,000 tonnes.

European relevance: Turkey’s substitution on that scale is a physical-flow fact, and it is the part that matters for European product balances.

Watch next: Whether Black Sea product loadings restart under the 500,000-tonne allowance or if the producer ban lapses on 31 October.

Last verified 22 October 2026View full chronology

The Rhine at Kaub dipped below gauge zero again on 6–8 October and read 17cm at midday on 22 October, still far too low for normal barge loading. Both Cernavodă reactors remain in safe shutdown; Nuclearelectrica's planning assumes grid reconnection from 1 November, not a confirmed restart.

• Kaub raw gauge: −2cm on 7–8 October, a 22cm high on 12 October, 17cm on 22 October.
• Nuclearelectrica, 11 October: Cernavodă units 1 and 2 held in safe shutdown.
• Platts, 7 October: Lobith and Cologne near record lows; ARA–Karlsruhe barges about €200 a tonne.

European relevance: Lost hydro and nuclear is replaced by gas Europe is struggling to store, and lost barge capacity moves to trucks burning the diesel Europe is shortest of.

Watch next: Whether autumn rain lifts Kaub above about 30cm, where most barges can load again, and whether Cernavodă reconnects from 1 November as planned.

Last verified 22 October 2026View full chronology

US retail diesel was $6.352 a gallon in the week of 26 October (EIA), and AAA's average was $6.32 on 30 October, against $6.41 a month earlier. US distillate stocks are 102.8 million barrels, about 10% below the five-year average for the week to 23 October.

• EIA: retail diesel $6.352 a gallon, week of 26 October, up from $6.276.
• AAA: diesel $6.32 on 30 October, against $6.41 a month earlier.
• EIA: distillate stocks fell 1.5m barrels in the week to 23 October, 10% below average.

European relevance: The deeper stress is downstream, where Europe sits as a net diesel importer: product tightness, not crude, sets its fuel costs.

Watch next: The 3 November EIA retail diesel reading, whether the first Russian cargo reaching New York around 7 November moves US prices, and whether distillate stocks fall towards 100 million barrels.

Last verified 30 October 2026View full chronology

Strikes resumed after a three-day pause: Ukraine hit the Ryazan refinery on 15 October, and Volgograd, about 5% of Russian capacity, stopped all processing after a 2 October attack. Moscow eased its diesel export ban on 10 October only to permit 500,000 tonnes; the producer ban still runs to 31 October.

• Ryazan refinery struck 15 October after the energy pause ended; debris started a fire (AP).
• Volgograd stopped all crude processing after the 2 October drone attack (Reuters).
• Interfax, 20 October: producer diesel ban in force to 31 October, no extension announced.

European relevance: Lost Russian refining removes diesel from the pool behind the tightest diesel balance in the system — Europe’s.

Watch next: Whether the producer ban is extended past 31 October, and whether Ryazan and Volgograd restart or join the plants already offline.

Last verified 22 October 2026View full chronology

US distillate stocks are 102.8 million barrels, about 10% below the five-year average for the week to 23 October. Europe will release about 42m barrels of emergency stocks, roughly half diesel, Russia's first US-bound diesel cargo sailed on 23 October, and Reuters reports Moscow will extend its diesel export ban to year-end.

• France, 29 October: Europe to release about 42m barrels over three months, roughly half diesel.
• Kremlin, 23 October: first 40,000-tonne diesel cargo sailed for the US; due about 7 November.
• Reuters, 29 October: Russian diesel export ban to be extended to year-end; no decree yet.

European relevance: An enacted US restriction would tighten competition for replacement diesel, but nothing is enacted and its scope, exemptions and duration would decide any effect.

Watch next: Whether Moscow issues the export-ban decree and November quotas, whether the US-bound cargo discharges in New York, and how quickly Europe's release reaches distributors.

Last verified 30 October 2026View full chronology

No deal: Saudi, Pakistani, Turkish and Iranian officials meeting in Tehran on 26–27 October agreed only to keep talking, and an Iranian official called Qatar's draft 'unacceptable ideas and not an offer'. Mediators aim to restart US–Iran talks after the 3 November midterms, while the US blockade of Iranian ports continues.

• 26–27 October, Tehran: Saudi, Pakistani, Turkish and Iranian officials agree only to keep talking.
• 28 October: Iranian official calls Qatar's draft 'unacceptable ideas and not an offer'.
• WSJ, 29 October: Gulf states told to prepare for a short US campaign after 3 November.

European relevance: Strikes on Saudi export infrastructure now feed directly into the crude, diesel and gas prices Europe imports at.

Watch next: Whether talks restart after the 3 November midterms or reported US strike planning becomes action, and whether Egypt deploys under its new parliamentary authorisation.

Last verified 30 October 2026View full chronology

Russia shipped about 20m barrels of oil to Asia through the Northern Sea Route from July to mid-October, about 50% more than in the whole 2025 season, and Rosatom expects a record 7m tonnes of transit cargo. The route is normally open from July to October, so the season is now closing.

• Reuters/LSEG: about 20m barrels to Asia via the route by mid-October, against 13m in 2025.
• CHNL: 104 transits to 30 September, already above the 2025 total of 103.
• Rosatom, 27 October: transit cargo expected to double to a record 7m tonnes.

European relevance: The route’s seasonal limits cap one of the few detours easing pressure on the corridors European imports are priced from.

Watch next: Whether late-season tankers clear the eastern sector before ice closes it, and whether a final season crude total is published.

Last verified 30 October 2026View full chronology

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is 282.6 million barrels, down 0.1 on the week, while commercial crude ex-SPR drew 1.9 million to 410.6 million. Distillate at 102.8 million is about 10% below its five-year average.

• SPR fell 0.1 million to 282.6 million in the week to 23 October.
• Commercial crude ex-SPR drew 1.9 million to 410.6 million (EIA, week to 23 October).
• Distillate drew 1.5 million to 102.8 million, about 10% below the five-year average for the week.

European relevance: A thinner US emergency buffer weakens the system’s insurance against the next disruption, leaving European import prices more exposed.

Watch next: Whether distillate stops drawing before the heating season, and whether SPR releases continue at this pace.

Data updated 29 October 2026View full chronology

No disruption to CPC loadings has been reported since a brief halt on 8 September, and no October drone incident at the terminal or its pump stations was found. No breach of Ukraine's August pledge not to target CPC has been reported, so the exposure is reduced, not removed.

• No CPC loading halt or terminal incident found between 5 and 22 October.
• Last incident: two moorings briefly halted after an 8 September drone incident.
• Kazakh output 1.92 million b/d in September, down 7% on Karachaganak maintenance.

European relevance: Much of this crude enters the Mediterranean and European refining system, so the loss lands on Europe directly.

Watch next: Whether Ukraine's pledge holds as strikes on Russian energy resume, and whether October export data show CPC back near 1.6 million b/d.

Last verified 22 October 2026View full chronology

Qatari LNG is leaving Hormuz only in small numbers, every count a floor because of dark transits, and two damaged Ras Laffan trains, about 17% of capacity, need about three years of repairs. EU storage was 74.6% full on 21 October, and Kpler puts Europe's October LNG imports at 9.11 Mt, below a year earlier.

• Baird Maritime: four laden Qatari carriers reappeared outside Hormuz around 2–3 October.
• Kpler via Clyde Russell: Europe's October LNG imports 9.11 Mt, against 10.59 Mt a year earlier.
• Edison: QatarEnergy force majeure on its cargoes extended until early December.

European relevance: Europe is not going without; it is outbidding Asia for replacements — and every US cargo Qatar buys is one that cannot also land at Rotterdam or Wilhelmshaven.

Watch next: Whether Qatari exits keep rising and EU storage can reach the 80% flexed floor before 1 December as German stocks begin to draw.

Last verified 22 October 2026View full chronology

The first marker peaked and pulled back: the 30-year Treasury yield closed at 5.67% on 7 October, its highest since 2002, then 5.37% on 28 October as the Fed held rates. The second marker has not fired: the yen stayed between about ¥156.9 and ¥158.8 to the dollar in October, without intervention.

• FRED: 30-year yield 5.67% on 7 October, highest since 2002; 5.37% on 28 October.
• Fed, 28 October: rates held at 3.75–4.00%; two dissents favoured a hike.
• BoJ, 30 October: rate held at 1.25%; FY2027 inflation forecast raised to 2.6%.

European relevance: Energy is actively driving rate expectations while leveraged positions weaken — the repricing channel that reaches European borrowing costs.

Watch next: Whether the yen breaks back through ¥160 into renewed intervention, or a disorderly yen rally forces carry positions into repayment.

Last verified 30 October 2026View full chronology

Sulphur scarcity is still cutting phosphate output: Mosaic's US and Brazil curtailments stand and no restart has been reported. Chinese sulphur prices fell nearly 16% in the month to 22 September, but supply stays tight, and DAP averaged $800.6 a tonne in September, its highest this year.

• DAP averaged $800.6/t in September (World Bank), up from $793.5 in August.
• Chinese ex-works sulphur down nearly 16% month-on-month to 22 September (SMM via Global Agriculture).
• Uberaba hibernation was scheduled for September; no confirmation it began, nor any restart reported.

European relevance: Fertiliser supply risk lands on a Europe relying heavily on imports after losing domestic ammonia capacity.

Watch next: Mosaic's third-quarter volumes and fourth-quarter sulphur settlement — the first hard read on whether curtailments deepened or eased.

Last verified 5 October 2026View full chronology

China is still withholding phosphate: the DAP and MAP suspension's August end date passed with no resumption or successor policy reported. Urea moved the other way — Bloomberg reports the 2026 allowance raised to about 5–5.5 million tonnes, with at least 1.2 million tonnes sold to India — and sulphuric acid exports remain halted.

• Urea allowance raised to about 5–5.5 million tonnes, from 3.3 million (Bloomberg, people familiar).
• At least 1.2 million tonnes to India's tender, loading by 24 September.
• No resumption of DAP/MAP exports reported after the suspension's August end date.

European relevance: Retained Chinese supply tightens the world fertiliser market import-reliant Europe depends on.

Watch next: Whether Beijing formally extends the phosphate suspension into winter stockpiling or reopens DAP and MAP under quota.

Last verified 5 October 2026View full chronology

Brazil is entering soybean planting on sharply fewer imported inputs: fertiliser arrivals in the first 13 business days of September ran about 30% below a year earlier, after January–August imports fell to 25.4 million tonnes. Planting itself is on pace and USDA has not cut its 186 million-tonne soybean forecast, so input loss has not yet become production loss.

• September fertiliser arrivals averaged 137,300 tonnes a day over 13 business days, down 29.9%.
• January–August fertiliser imports 25.37 million tonnes, lowest for the period since 2023; urea 2.82 million.
• Soybean planting reached 3.4% by 24 September, against 3.2% a year earlier (AgRural).

European relevance: A weaker Brazilian harvest would tighten the global food balances behind European import prices.

Watch next: October planting pace and whether reduced phosphate and nitrogen use starts to appear in yield forecasts.

Last verified 5 October 2026View full chronology

USDA holds Mexico's 2026/27 corn production at 24.6 million tonnes and still projects imports of 27.2 — more than the country grows — so the structural exposure stands. The US price channel has cooled: fruit and vegetable prices were 3.2% above a year earlier in August, down from 5.1% in July.

• September WASDE: Mexico corn imports cut 0.5 to 27.2 million tonnes; feed use cut 0.7.
• Mexico corn production unchanged at 24.6 million tonnes for a second month.
• US fruit and vegetable CPI up 3.2% year-on-year in August, down 0.4% on the month.

European relevance: Pressure on the US food system propagates into the global prices Europe’s food imports pay.

Watch next: Whether the 9 October WASDE or 14 October CPI shows Mexican output or US produce prices turning.

Last verified 5 October 2026View full chronology

USDA's September report still puts both wheat and corn below consumption in 2026/27, and the split between them has widened: world corn stocks were cut 2.6 to 272.1 million tonnes while wheat stocks were raised 3.0 to 276.3. Less room on corn, more on wheat.

• September WASDE: world corn stocks 272.1 million tonnes, down 2.6; production 1,291 against use 1,320.
• World wheat stocks raised 3.0 to 276.3 million tonnes, mainly Russia, Australia and Ukraine.
• Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports cut again on weak August Black Sea shipments.

European relevance: A thinner global grain margin leaves European food prices more exposed to the next shock.

Watch next: The 9 October WASDE — whether further corn cuts narrow the margin again.

Last verified 5 October 2026View full chronology

Forecasts for the EU maize crop are still falling: Coceral now puts the EU-plus-UK crop at 48.6 million tonnes, down from 52.7 in July, and MARS has cut its yield forecast to 6.50 t/ha, 8% below average. Only 22% of French maize was rated good or excellent on 28 September.

• Coceral cut the EU-plus-UK maize crop to 48.6 million tonnes from 52.7; France 7.6.
• MARS: EU grain maize yield 6.50 t/ha, down 2% on the month, 8% below average.
• USDA nudged EU corn up 0.4 to 50.6 million tonnes — the one forecast to rise.

European relevance: The failing crop is Europe’s own: potentially the smallest EU maize harvest since 2007.

Watch next: The final French and central European outturns — French maize was 67% harvested by 28 September.

Last verified 5 October 2026View full chronology